A mere two months prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
